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Corona Virus

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Come to NY.....................we have more than enough COVID-19 around here. My county is climbing rapidly and we are in upstate NY. I just saw the news tonight that somebody working at a local dollar general tested positive. That's all it takes for a 100 people to get it in the span of a couple of days.

With that said, I'm recommending to people to keep your usual routine. I get up at 5 am just like I used to and start work at home early at 7 am. I know people sleeping in and it's messing with their mental well-being. Get into a routine and keep it. Keep busy too. When I'm bored, I sharpen an axe or knife or do just about any odd task. Sure beats the 24/7 news cycle of gloom and doom.
 
Blade-meister said:
Come to NY.....................we have more than enough COVID-19 around here. My county is climbing rapidly and we are in upstate NY. I just saw the news tonight that somebody working at a local dollar general tested positive. That's all it takes for a 100 people to get it in the span of a couple of days.

With that said, I'm recommending to people to keep your usual routine. I get up at 5 am just like I used to and start work at home early at 7 am. I know people sleeping in and it's messing with their mental well-being. Get into a routine and keep it. Keep busy too. When I'm bored, I sharpen an axe or knife or do just about any odd task. Sure beats the 24/7 news cycle of gloom and doom.
Click to expand...

I have a lot of friends in Rochester and Pittsford area. I'm really worried about NY as a whole. One of my really good friends just got a kidney transplant about 7 months ago. She just got her life back and now she's worried about this disease. Thankfully she can work from home and her daughter brings her groceries when needed.
 
We have 103 confirmed cases in my upstate NY county (next over from @Blade-meister), with 3 in the hospital. No deaths, mercifully. The confirmed cases number keeps going up, slowly, but that may be due to more testing. The hospital number has been steady at 2 or 3 for a while, which is good.
 
Our Governor stated in a press conference that our curve (in Louisiana) is beginning to flatten. I don't know exactly what data sets he is using. But I will take him at his word. What I did find really intersting though is that the last three days, the number of people on ventilators has either declined or stayed steady. I know it's only three days...but I would think that is encouraging. At least one new outlet caught this:

www.wwltv.com

Louisiana Coronavirus Updates: 70 new deaths, new daily record, but ventilators improve

Louisiana registered its most deaths in a single day Tuesday, going against what health officials believed could have been the start of the virus plateauing.
www.wwltv.com www.wwltv.com

But another problem has been noticed. It seems that 70% of all COVID-19 deaths are African American. But some articles I have seen state that this is a problem accross the country and not just a Louisiana thing:

www.nola.com

Coronavirus disparity in Louisiana: About 70% of the victims are black, but why?

Roughly 70% of the people who have died from coronavirus in Louisiana are black, a striking disparity for a state where African-Americans make up only 32% of the population that
www.nola.com www.nola.com

It does seem that our mortality rate is holding around that 3% - 4.5% rate with it being around 3.5% as of late.

The number of people being hospitalized is going up by the number...probably faster than liked. But the rate seems to be around 12% - 13% of the positive cases.

Hopefully the numbers on ventilators continue to go down. But I am sure there will be a spike at some time.

DateTests Complete StateTests Complete PrivateTotal Tests ReportedPositive CasesDeaths ReportedHospitalizedOn Ventilators% Positive Cases% Mortality% Hosp - Pos Cases% Hosp on Vent
3/20/2020193127.00%2.60%
3/21/20201230153527655851621.16%2.74%
3/21/20201294200833027632023.11%2.62%
3/22/20201385211334988372023.93%2.39%
3/23/202016344314594811723419.70%2.90%
3/24/202018526751860313884616.13%3.31%
3/25/202020379414114511795654916415.68%3.62%27.35%13.03%
3/26/20202254157751802923058367623912.78%3.60%29.33%35.36%
3/27/202024761888321359274611977327012.86%4.33%28.15%34.93%
3/28/202026942246725161331513792733613.18%4.13%27.96%36.25%
3/29/2020293224939278713540151112738012.70%4.27%31.84%33.72%
3/30/2020402530853348784025185115838511.54%4.60%28.77%33.25%
3/31/2020346935498389675237239135543813.44%4.56%25.87%32.32%
4/1/2020369842078457766424273149849014.03%4.25%23.32%32.71%
4/2/2020390147185510869150310163950717.91%3.39%17.91%30.93%
4/3/20204037496085364510297370170753519.19%3.59%16.58%31.34%
4/4/20204194543045849812496409172657121.36%3.27%13.81%33.08%
4/5/20204368559576032513010477180356121.57%3.67%13.86%31.11%
4/6/20204510646566916614867512180956321.49%3.44%12.17%31.12%
4/7/20204609700467465516284582199651921.81%3.57%12.26%26%

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dangerousdon said:
But another problem has been noticed. It seems that 70% of all COVID-19 deaths are African American. But some articles I have seen state that this is a problem accross the country and not just a Louisiana thing:
Click to expand...
This seems to be the case in Michigan as well, particularly in Detroit. Now both the east side of Michigan and Louisiana have significant African American populations, so that has to have something to do with it. But I think it’s just one of a host of factors as to why it’s hitting this demographic particularly hard.
 
Cvargo said:
I have a lot of friends in Rochester and Pittsford area. I'm really worried about NY as a whole. One of my really good friends just got a kidney transplant about 7 months ago. She just got her life back and now she's worried about this disease. Thankfully she can work from home and her daughter brings her groceries when needed.
Click to expand...

Part of the real problem I see in upstate NY is that people aren't social distancing like they should. I see guys chopping wood together shooting the breeze on their tailgates of their truck and lots of people out gabbing at the local deli at the grocery store and stuff like that. A couple of my friends went out shooting rifles with buddies at their range and thought nothing of it. Maybe your buddy is sick, maybe not but you take a risk doing things like that. Maybe the door knob into the range office had 10 other people touch it that day? It only takes one infected person out and about to cause issues and in these small towns it will spread rapidly. My elderly mom even insisted on going out to get an Easter ham saying she'll just put a mask and gloves on and I'll like uhhhhh, no I'll get that ham when I get your groceries this week. A lot of folks I know around rural NY shop several times a week for food at the local grocery store instead of making a list and shopping one a week or once every two weeks and they've been reluctant to switch.

Interesting article on the toilet paper issue:

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

This really explains what is going on with the TP shortage on the distribution side.
 
Blade-meister said:
Part of the real problem I see in upstate NY is that people aren't social distancing like they should. I see guys chopping wood together shooting the breeze on their tailgates of their truck and lots of people out gabbing at the local deli at the grocery store and stuff like that. A couple of my friends went out shooting rifles with buddies at their range and thought nothing of it. Maybe your buddy is sick, maybe not but you take a risk doing things like that. Maybe the door knob into the range office had 10 other people touch it that day? It only takes one infected person out and about to cause issues and in these small towns it will spread rapidly. My elderly mom even insisted on going out to get an Easter ham saying she'll just put a mask and gloves on and I'll like uhhhhh, no I'll get that ham when I get your groceries this week. A lot of folks I know around rural NY shop several times a week for food at the local grocery store instead of making a list and shopping one a week or once every two weeks and they've been reluctant to switch.

Interesting article on the toilet paper issue:

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

This really explains what is going on with the TP shortage on the distribution side.
Click to expand...
Well...that is something that I did not think about! Thanks for the article and the info!
 
NurseDave said:
@dangerousdon a good number to look at for the "curve" is your doubling rate. Doubling every 1-2 days means your curve is heading to the stratosphere and you're probably on the news. Doubling every 6-7 days after your surge means you likely are on the downhill side of things.
Click to expand...
I think I knew this but for some reason didn't think about it. Thanks Dave for the info!
 
New numbers in...
1586366811951.png

It appears that the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals has decreased for the first time and the number of those on ventilators has decreased again. That's three out of four days this has decreased.

Just eyeballing what Dave was saying about the number of cases doubling. It seems that from 3/21 to about 4/1 the numbers were doubling roughly every three days. But since 4/2, we still haven't doubled that number...so right now about six days? Yeah, that does seem like a significant decrease.
 
The TP article is interesting and actually makes sense. I wonder if the same rationale applies to food. When we are working 5 or 6 days a week, we often tend to get several meals out during the week. Now we all have to cook much more, requiring the need to buy more food for the house. And you have the same commercial/consumer dynamic because most restaurants buy their food from wholesale suppliers. It puts a more logical explanation on the shortages we are seeing. Stay safe everyone.
 
More than 16,000 cases here in Pennsylvania now, with more than 16% of tests confirming as positive. My county has the second highest number of cases after Philly, but that’s not too surprising since we’re right next door. PA hasn’t had the problems of NY or NJ, as our governor had us on lockdown weeks ago. For all that Philly has lots of problems, they handled this one right. A NY Times article talked about how they were planning for this since November when the virus first raised its head. Currently, all regional hospitals are operating below COVID capacity, and we hope they stay that way. It took 100 years, but they are making up for the nightmare of Spanish flu.
 
Sort of off topic, but any suggestions for homemade face mask online? Etsy is where I am looking. Found some cool ones on Amazon, but ship dates are mid-June! These would be for use while shopping, not for my job as a pharmacist. KJ @Spider has some cool ones, and I am so trying to be cool!
 
MaineYooper said:
Sort of off topic, but any suggestions for homemade face mask online? Etsy is where I am looking. Found some cool ones on Amazon, but ship dates are mid-June! These would be for use while shopping, not for my job as a pharmacist. KJ @Spider has some cool ones, and I am so trying to be cool!
Click to expand...

I've been able to fashion a mask for myself out of a bandana. I fold it in such a way taht it covers my entire nose up to just below the bridge of my nose and all the way down under my chin. I then took two rubber bands and double wrapped them on each end. I then took the loose part and wrapped it around each ear to keep it in place. I only wear it when I go food shopping or at Home Depot. Those are the only two places I've gone during this whole thing. I don't wear a mask when I'm riding my bike on solo rides. First, it would be too difficult to breath properly since I ride for exercise and try and push it on both downhills and on climbs. Second, I don't go anywhere near people. If I pass someone I will go out into the middle of the road when passing someone walking or running or riding. And for rest stops I'll only stop if there isn't anyone around.
 
MntnMan62 said:
I've been able to fashion a mask for myself out of a bandana. I fold it in such a way taht it covers my entire nose up to just below the bridge of my nose and all the way down under my chin. I then took two rubber bands and double wrapped them on each end. I then took the loose part and wrapped it around each ear to keep it in place. I only wear it when I go food shopping or at Home Depot. Those are the only two places I've gone during this whole thing. I don't wear a mask when I'm riding my bike on solo rides. First, it would be too difficult to breath properly since I ride for exercise and try and push it on both downhills and on climbs. Second, I don't go anywhere near people. If I pass someone I will go out into the middle of the road when passing someone walking or running or riding. And for rest stops I'll only stop if there isn't anyone around.
Click to expand...
Bandanas apparently are of limited effectiveness. (Although they're definitely better than anything!). I saw a chart the other day that showed the relative effectiveness of various home materials and bandannas and scarves were at the bottom of the list. Here's a peer-reviewed article about the various effectivenesses of materials:

Testing the Efficacy of Homemade Masks: Would They Protect in an Influenza Pandemic?

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
 
2552 positive with 63 deaths in my state and 126 positive in my county and total deaths are 4 and rate per 100 k is 39.40
 
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