Corona Virus

[The Monkey]

Schools have low coronavirus infection rate, German study finds

The results showed that out of 2,045 blood samples collected from students and teachers from across 13 secondary schools in the region only 12 samples were found to contain antibodies against Covid-19.

www.cnbc.com

 

[NurseDave]

0.1%-4% when it's your kid the numbers don't matter. Just like making them all wear those helmets they hate.

 

[Jaro1069]

Well here's the latest our governor just announced today. Copied from the site...
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster said he is "calling on all the public school districts to submit reopening plans that give parents the option to send their children back to school five days a week."

"Or, parents can choose to keep their children home and receive virtual instruction," he said at a news conference Wednesday. "We must give parents the choice. This is the only thing that we're asking these districts to do today -- to the give the parents the choice."

 

[Jaro1069]

Schools have low coronavirus infection rate, German study finds

The results showed that out of 2,045 blood samples collected from students and teachers from across 13 secondary schools in the region only 12 samples were found to contain antibodies against Covid-19.

www.cnbc.com

Is that in your area ? If so that's great but some area's are Not that lucky... I'm very surprised our governor said this considering kids are dying here.... What I hate is seeing parents saying " I have to get back to work I can't stay home with them again this year" how can parents have so little regard for their own children. I mean it is nothing other than another form of child endangerment. We KNOW kids can get it at least in our state so we need to protect them !!!!! The bad thing is they ( kids) have no choice in the matter.. They have to do what their parents and society tell them to do.... I guess my kids will be online schooled at least for the time being....

 

[CBLindsay]

CNBC just published an article that sparked some interesting thoughts in my head.. The title of the article implied the article was about how the surge in COVID cases in Israel is causing political trouble for its "political leader". Like most articles of this type, the article was written by someone with a pretty clear bias and agenda, beyond that there really wasn't a lot to be gained from reading it ...no new or useful information presented to help the reader understand the issue(s) any better or prepare them to make a more informed opinion. BUT, the chart attached to the article and some of the background provided in the article formed some interesting parallels in my mind to things that might be happening locally and sparked on of those "aha" moments I thought worth sharing.

The article (and chart) pointed out how well Israel had done to contain the COVID threat between March and May, reaching a point where the daily case count was in the single digits. The writer went on to say "after having 'some success' in controlling the health crisis, activity was allowed to restart." The words "some success" struck me as odd since they had gone through a full rise and fall of case counts and had achieved a single digit new case count, that seem like more than "some" success. The words also caught my attention because they were a link to another document prepared by the Deep Knowledge Group (I have no idea who they are) and that very comprehensive report was a safety assessment of 200 countries that included a ranking of least and most risky based on how well they had and were handing cases ...Israel ranked 3rd behind Switzerland and Germany with 197 other countries falling behind them. ...some success? But like i said, the article only sparked the aHA, it didn't author it.

My aHA! moment came from it all coming together. Here we have/had a population of 8 million people living in a space the size of Vermont that had done enough right that they were able to gain control of the health crisis, taking the case count down to single digits. They did it in a way many other countries (including the US) have chosen to tackle the issue, close borders and shut down the economy to allow the population to isolate and limit exposure. Even their time frame (2.5-3 months) is in line with how we began our first attack. Then, once they achieved the single digit case count it was time to restart the economy (why not? the case count has been brought DOWN to single digits). NOW, Israel is experiencing a surge in cases that eclipses the pace/volume seen from the initial onset of the pandemic.

The pandemic came to our shores with just ONE case (or small handful of cases) and spread from there, that is how epidemics occur. So long as ONE positive case remains unidentified in the wild, the potential for a new surge remains. COVID does not require a political outcome or policy change, it just requires an opportunity. As long as WE have the opportunity to interact with others so does the COVID virus have the opportunity to spread. Likewise, the virus doesn't care if the single digit case count is at the tail end of an outbreak or if it is the beginning. This really means there is no way to truly fully contain the COVID outbreak. BUT...with each new surge there are fewer people who are susceptible to the virus, fewer potential spreaders, improved prevention techniques, better treatments and eventually a vaccine will be available to aid in reducing the number of susceptible/spreaders.

 

[CBLindsay]

Also, it was only a matter of time but I think the tipping point has been reached now so it should start to happen pretty fast now. Corporations have begun to pick up on the need for masks and are now implementing mask requirements for customers. Until now they had mostly left the mask requirements at the store level up to local and regional mandate, now they are implementing the mandate regardless of the local mandates. It won't take very long before the majority of corporations are implementing universal mask requirements, making local mandates unnecessary or irrelevant.

 

[Dave in KY]

BUT...with each new surge there are fewer people who are susceptible to the virus, fewer potential spreaders

Interesting thoughts as always Chris. The bold is in question though isn't it? Saw a 20 something interviewed on Today this morning that caught it a 2nd time so antibodies don't have a lengthy protection as hoped I think.

 

[NurseDave]

Interesting thoughts as always Chris. The bold is in question though isn't it? Saw a 20 something interviewed on Today this morning that caught it a 2nd time so antibodies don't have a lengthy protection as hoped I think.

I didn't see this, but I know the length antibodies are in the system also seem dependent on how severe the illness was. Without getting too technical, if the infection is only in the upper airway the immunity doesn't seem to last as long as if it's in the lower airways. Of course, like Chad's facial hair, things keep changing.

 

[Jaro1069]

I agree that as long as there is even a single person out there with the virus we are not safe. The numbers may be less but I know that I definitely don't want for any of us or our families to be among the infected...Please everyone be safe and remember this virus doesn't care it just wants to infect and until there is truly a "cure" none of us are safe... There are things we can do to try to limit our chances of catching it and I hope everyone does everything they can to stay safe.. so I pray whichever deity you pray to ( I know we have many different religions here ) will keep you safe.

 

[MntnMan62]

One thing is certain. As we learn more and more about the virus, what we learn is not positive. We thought younger healthy people were safe. Now we know that isn't true. We used to think that once you got better, you were completely cured. Now we know that many people are left with permanent heart damage, neurological issues, respiratory issues, kidney damage and cognitive issues. We thought that you couldn't catch it twice. Now we may be hearing that is not true. More to come on that one I think . Bottom line is that with 140,000 dead in the US alone and cases surging, the US has become the example of what NOT to do. We are the laughing stock of the world. I am on some other forums, notably a biking forum that has mostly european, scandanavian members, and they see the US as a "laughing stock". And they would be right. It's sad. I think the one message I have taken from this is that each and every one of us is on our own. We can't rely on anyone. We each have to take the necessary steps to keep ourselves and our families safe. I am not listening to any guidance from anyone that suggests we can be free to let our guard down and start social distancing again and stop wearin masks and send our kids to school. It doesn't take a whole lot of brain power to realize that since the beginning of this nightmare NOTHING HAS CHANGED. No vaccine. No special treatments Numbers go down only because the population was careful. Then when someone suggests we don't have to be so careful anymore, the numbers surge. It's common sense that we have to continue doing what we did to get the numbers down in the first place until such time as a vaccine is developed and proven to work. That's the only way. It's not that complicated and it's not rocket science. Social distancing and masks are the ONLY two things that work. It's not "magically" going away. And money will never, ever supercede human lives or well being. Because if that were to happen, that would be the beginning of the end of society as we know it. I hope nothing I've said here is out of bounds like my post from earlier in the day and for which I again apologize.

 

[beginish]

Interesting thoughts as always Chris. The bold is in question though isn't it? Saw a 20 something interviewed on Today this morning that caught it a 2nd time so antibodies don't have a lengthy protection as hoped I think.

Exactly. You get infected, you get antibodies. Some of those antibodies are great, lots stink. When the body encounters something foreign, the immune system sets out to make antibodies to anything on the pathogen. Lots and lots of shots on goal. Only some are effective against the pathogen. So you have to make an effective antibody first. Then you have to make enough of it to be preventative. This is easier said than done.

Look at HIV. We know more about that virus than just about anything. We still don’t have a vaccine after 35 years of trying. Covid is a black box. I am encouraged by the results Moderna reported with its vaccine in a peer reviewed study. Neutralizing antibodies (e.g. it kills or disables the virus) and it makes 4x the antibodies than are produced in natural infections.Very promising. I hope it holds up in the 30000 patient trial they are about to start.

 

[CBLindsay]

Interesting thoughts as always Chris. The bold is in question though isn't it? Saw a 20 something interviewed on Today this morning that caught it a 2nd time so antibodies don't have a lengthy protection as hoped I think.

I didn't see this, but I know the length antibodies are in the system also seem dependent on how severe the illness was. Without getting too technical, if the infection is only in the upper airway the immunity doesn't seem to last as long as if it's in the lower airways. Of course, like Chad's facial hair, things keep changing.

It depends on who you want to listen to and/or whether you look at the glass as half full or half empty. We never achieve full immunity or full coverage or full this or that but in the overwhelming number of cases, the typical outcome is that someone who clears a virus maintains an immunity to that virus for a meaningful amount of time (define as you will). THEN add to the conversation/science pot whatever things like your ability to fight off a future infection "better" because it has seen that protein before, even if your antibody load isn't technically enough to outright prevent an infection. So, while there is technically a potential that immunity isn't strong or long lasting...it is also possible I will win the lottery, a third party candidate will win the election and my dad will live to 100. The odds and evidence are not particularly leaning in that direction.

There have been a few stories of someone "getting it twice". Some theories have been that they never actually cleared the virus the first time. With improved and additional testing I don't know if this is still a theory or what.

I saw a story last night where a "doctor" (I don't know what kind of doctor) was excited to share how basic fabric masks can actually protect the wearer AND help build herd immunity. WHAAAT? What she was saying was that the fabric masks provide a basic barrier that slows the virus down even if it doesn't filter it. The basic punchline was that the wearer of a mask, if exposed, would likely get a lower viral exposure and get a lesser infection as a result. The lesser infection would still result in immunity but would be far easier to recover from possibly even being asymptomatic. Kind of goes along with what @NurseDave was saying about where in the airway the infection is/was only she never discussed how deep the infection might be, only the initial viral load. Sounded plausible enough even if it was total hog wash and unless people started wearing masks AND going into COVID hot zones to rescue fallen family members ors something, i don't see how it will hurt too many people to hear what she said.

I agree that as long as there is even a single person out there with the virus we are not safe. The numbers may be less but I know that I definitely don't want for any of us or our families to be among the infected...Please everyone be safe and remember this virus doesn't care it just wants to infect and until there is truly a "cure" none of us are safe... There are things we can do to try to limit our chances of catching it and I hope everyone does everything they can to stay safe.. so I pray whichever deity you pray to ( I know we have many different religions here ) will keep you safe.

I don't know is I (personally) wouldn't go so far as to say we won't be "safe" until... There are a number of big bad uglies (SARS,MERS,ZIKA,EBOLA etc) that we don't have cures for today that were pretty scary when they were the epidemic d'jour. We figure it out and move on (or forget). I am cautious and careful but to say I don't feel "safe" is not the way I (personally) would put it. I guess it is a matter of perspective, if/when any of these things are impacting you, you see it differently. (I think Nursedave said that about the schools). In my case, the shutdown and choices made that impacted access to delivery of medical care and services has had a far more negative (life altering) impact on me than the virus itself.

The exciting news in my book is that the technology we are seeing used to develop vaccines for THIS bug is ground breaking and will enable us to develop vaccines for other bad bugs and modify the COVID one as needed more quickly than our older methods. If we have to suffer the slings and arrows of the pandemic, it would be nice to get a ground-breaking technology or two out of it.

 

[fhalden]

I'm high risk. I'm 52, have diabetes and hbp, and I'm overweight. When this started, my boss cut my hours back to two hours a week and told me she wanted me to quit, but wouldn't lay me off entirely so she wouldn't have to worry about unemployment. Given the risk associated with my job, and my risk factors, I decided to oblige her and quit. This was in March. I live with my mother, who is 80 and has health problems that make her high risk as well. So we're basically in a bubble, and I'm taking money out of my retirement, with the sizeable tax penalties, to cover what are modest living expenses (and soap lol). When I go out, which has been to a farm stand and grocery, and the post office, I wear a mask - a nice Baltimore Orioles mask, because I'm a loyal fan. I'm in Middle Tennessee, which is spiking, and I still see about half the people not wearing masks. So, that is what I do. I don't know what else I can do. I wish everyone would wear masks at the very least. I think I've accepted that Covid will be with us for a long time. I'm looking for a work from home job. I try and concentrate on things I can control, and minimize the stress from pondering things I cannot. Frankly, I don't know what else to do. I follow the data from John's Hopkins and the CDC, and do not listen to cable TV pundits. For me, preserving my mental health is as big a part of this as anything. Some days, it seems bigger.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

 

[GearNoir]

Just down the pipeline this afternoon...our local school district isn’t going to open back up any campuses this fall. Everything will be from home/online. Both my incoming 9th grader, my incoming 7th grader, and my sanity are going to be denied a proper start to the new school year.

 

[fhalden]

Just down the pipeline this afternoon...our local school district isn’t going to open back up any campuses this fall. Everything will be from home/online. Both my incoming 9th grader, my incoming 7th grader, and my sanity are going to be denied a proper start to the new school year.

Hang in there, my friend!

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

 

[Blade-meister]

One thing that seems to be lost in all of this is remembering back. We were told initially not to wear masks and to save them for our hard working medical folks. Then we were told to wear masks and socially distance to flatten the curve so that hospitals were not overwhelmed beyond capacity. Now WHO announces on May 29th that healthy people should not be wearing a mask unless caring for someone infected with COVID.

One thing not touched on is the fact that most of these serious viruses are only cured by herd immunity. 100 years ago Dr. William Farr discovered that all viruses follow a natural bell curve which we call Farr's Law. When herd immunity thresholds are met, the virus subsides. All the lock-downs in the world will only delay the inevitable. This is well settled science that you can look up and read about. COVID has a natural bell curve and it has a herd immunity threshold (HIT). In the beginning, we were told the HIT was very high, but now that we have data from countries like Sweden, Denmark, France, Germany, and Italy we know much more about the HIT. It's now estimated that the HIT is somewhere between 15% - 20% infection rate. Places that had initially low infection numbers means that their infection rate could have been as low as 3% or 6% (Florida was estimated to be 6%). What this means is that if you have a 6% infection rate, you will continue to see an increase in positive cases until you reach the HIT of 15% - 20%. Sweden peaked when it's HIT reached roughly 7.3% and the virus was on it's way out when the HIT reached 14% at the other end of Farr's natural bell curve. Sweden had no lock-downs and instead protected the most vulnerable of their population too. When the HIT's were calculated for various states most of the states we are seeing problems in today and "spikes" were in the 3% - 8% implied HIT rates so they have some distance to go. Overall, the US is calculated to have an implied HIT of 15% right now which is actually very good! I am not belittling lives lost, but historically we've only overcome these things with herd immunity. Wear is Swine Flu today and Bird Flu? Well, we discovered how to treat these conditions, but herd immunity has reduced viable hosts to transmit these things and COVID-19 will follow a similar path. For those most vulnerable, sure wear a mask and take every precaution you can because we want you to be safe and healthy, but certainly draconian laws forcing mass mask wearing isn't necessary because even if we slow COVID it still must run it's course which doesn't mean mass deaths for those under 70 years of age.

On the issue of school aged children, there is no scientific evidence supporting a risk of death in children under 18. Dr. Scott Atlas has been sighting studies and data showing that there is a near zero incident of death among children 15 and under and there is little evidence that they transmit the virus to adults. We have only to look at the data from our day care facilities that remained open. In fact only 4 deaths have been attributed to children age 15 and under so far. Our chance of being struck by lightning is 1 in 700,000. The chance of a child under the age of 15 dying of COVID is 1 in 3.5 million! We lose many more in that age group to the yearly flu virus yet nothing was done in schools each year for the flu and that has been proven to be easily passed from child to adult whereas COVID has not yet had sufficient data to prove that. It may be proven someday, but currently the science isn't supporting it.

Don't trust me, look this stuff up for yourself and put Dr. Scott Atlas' conclusions and data to the test. Inform yourself and please don't get your information from CNN or any of the other news networks.

 

[HMan]

Sweden has been a total failure and they themselves have just said they are very far from herd immunity. They are one of the sources that are beginning to cast doubt on how long immunity lasts for. Well Nurse Dave said it best a number of posts back.

I'll take a well rounded selection of news and science based sites, but can't include Dr. Atlas as a trustworthy source.

 

[fhalden]

Sweden has been a total failure and they themselves have just said they are very far from herd immunity. They are one of the sources that are beginning to cast doubt on how long immunity lasts for. Well Nurse Dave said it best a number of posts back.

I'll take a well rounded selection of news and science based sites, but can't include Dr. Atlas as a trustworthy source.

+1

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[Blade-meister]

Sweden has been a total failure and they themselves have just said they are very far from herd immunity.

HMan, please show us when and where Sweden has admitted this and some data to support this. It's an opposing view and I think we'd all like to see some meat so that we can be informed. All the data I've reviewed is to the contrary, but I have an open mind to opposing data. The more facts and science we all can review the more complete picture we can all see.

Why is Dr. Atlas not trustworthy but CNN is? Please again post some facts to support why his credentials and everything are not trustworthy. Thank you.

 

[HMan]

Here's something on Sweden. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Being our neighbor, we've had it in the news but that's in Finnish.

Atlas for me has clear biases, and I believe him to be politically motived. His exaggerated used of language is one give away. I didn't say CNN specifically, I just mean, it's good to look at a number of sites trustworthy sites to corroborate information, especially controversial information.

I know every outlet has their own biases, some are so far to one direction or another, that that if there isn't anyone in the middle in agreement, it's probably ballocks from my POV.

We all know that there is a lot of confusion, bad information, out of date information, etc out there. And people that seem to relish in getting attention though sowing dissension and misinformation. For me that makes taking the most conservative/safest approach the most logical one when there is so much fuzziness in the info we have.